Trump Downplays High Gas Prices as Midterms Approach, Telling Rally Crowd Pump Prices Will Come Down

Introduction

With Election Day on November 3, 2026, now just days away, gasoline prices have become one of the most visible and immediate measures by which many voters judge the state of the economy. The price displayed on a station sign is not an abstraction. It is something drivers see every time they fill a tank, commute to work, take children to school, or plan a trip. It is also, for that reason, a sensitive political subject in the final stretch of a midterm campaign.

President Donald Trump addressed the issue directly at a recent rally in Rome, Georgia. Rather than conceding that prices are high, he argued that voters are still better off than they were under his two most recent predecessors, and he dismissed the criticism he expected to follow. He also made a prediction: pump prices are going to come down.

That message arrives at a moment when the national average price remains well above where it stood a year earlier, when public confidence in the federal government and in the economy is low in recent polling, and when energy analysts say meaningful relief before Election Day is unlikely. The contrast between the president's confident framing and the numbers drivers are actually seeing helps explain why gasoline has become such a contested issue in the closing days of the campaign.

This article looks at what Trump said, what the latest price data show, how current prices compare with past peaks, what analysts are forecasting for the days before the election, and what voters and policymakers may be watching next.

What Trump Said in Rome, Georgia

At the rally in Rome, Georgia, Trump told supporters that voters are "still paying lower than Biden and Obama." The remark framed today's prices not in isolation, but in comparison with earlier administrations.

He then anticipated how his comments might be covered. "I can just see the fake headlines... 'President Trump is talking about the money they're making while people are suffering at the pump.' That'll be the headline. But I said I don't give a damn, I'm going to say: We're making a frickin' fortune. Our country is getting stronger and stronger all the time. And those pump prices are going to come down."

The comments contained several distinct messages at once. First, there was the comparison to former Presidents Joe Biden and Barack Obama, suggesting that the current situation should be judged relative to theirs. Second, there was a preemptive rejection of critical coverage, with Trump predicting the headline he expected to see. Third, there was a claim about national strength and revenue, expressed in blunt terms. And fourth, there was a forward-looking promise: prices will fall.

That combination — comparison, defiance, confidence, and a prediction — is characteristic of how Trump has often handled difficult economic news on the campaign trail. Rather than dwelling on the present cost, he has sought to place it in a longer story about national strength and to assure supporters that improvement is coming.

For voters who are feeling the cost at the pump right now, however, the comparison to past presidencies may matter less than the amount they paid on their most recent fill-up. That tension — between a political argument about relative prices over time and a household experience of prices today — is central to how this issue is likely to play in the final days before the election.

The Latest Numbers: $4.29 a Gallon

According to AAA, the national average gas price was $4.29 per gallon on Monday, October 26, 2026. That figure is up $1.23 from the same date a year ago.

That year-over-year increase is significant for several reasons. A rise of more than a dollar per gallon affects nearly every household that drives, and it does so in a way that is immediately noticeable. Unlike some economic measures that move gradually or are reported only in monthly data, gasoline prices change frequently and are posted in large numbers where everyone can see them.

The increase also matters because it reverses any sense that fuel costs had settled. For families already coping with other household expenses, an additional $1.23 per gallon adds up quickly over a week of commuting, school runs, errands, and work travel. For businesses that depend on transportation, delivery, or field work, higher fuel costs can also feed through into operating expenses.

At the same time, a national average hides wide variation. Prices differ from state to state and from region to region, depending on taxes, supply conditions, refinery capacity, transportation costs, and local competition. The national figure is therefore best understood as a broad indicator, not as the price any particular driver will see. Still, as a headline measure, $4.29 per gallon on October 26, 2026, sets the context for the political debate: prices are high, they are higher than a year ago, and they remain high very close to an election.

How Today's Prices Compare With Past Peaks

Trump's claim that voters are "still paying lower than Biden and Obama" invites a direct comparison with past price peaks. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which tracks peak monthly averages, provide a way to test that comparison in broad terms.

The peak monthly average under Biden was $5.03 in June 2022. The peak monthly average under Obama was $3.96 in May 2011. The highest monthly average under Trump was $4.60 in May 2026.

Those figures require careful reading. A peak monthly average is not the same as a single-day price, and it is not the same as the price in any particular state or at any particular station. It is a monthly average at the national level, and the peaks occurred in different years, under different global conditions.

Read in that light, the comparison is mixed. The current national average of $4.29 per gallon on October 26, 2026, is below the Biden peak monthly average of $5.03 in June 2022 and below the highest monthly average under Trump himself, $4.60 in May 2026. It is, however, above the Obama peak monthly average of $3.96 in May 2011.

That nuance matters. A statement that voters are paying less than they did under both predecessors does not line up neatly with all of these peak figures when they are compared side by side. At the same time, a single-day national average and a peak monthly average are different measures, and neither one captures the full experience of drivers over a presidency.

What is clear is that gasoline prices have reached historically high levels under all three presidencies at different points. The June 2022 peak under Biden, the May 2011 peak under Obama, and the May 2026 peak under Trump each reflect periods of strain in energy markets. Voters may remember those periods differently, but the data show that high fuel prices are not unique to any one administration.

For the midterm debate, the more immediate question may be simpler: how do today's prices feel compared with a year ago, and do voters believe they will fall soon? On the first point, the AAA figure is unambiguous — prices are up sharply year over year. On the second, analysts are cautious, as discussed below.

Why Prices Are Still High: The Analyst View

Energy analysts point to a combination of supply pressures, market volatility, and geopolitical conflict as factors keeping prices elevated. GasBuddy's head of petroleum analysis, Patrick De Haan, addressed the outlook in a blog post on October 26, 2026.

De Haan wrote that gas prices are unlikely to significantly decrease before Election Day on November 3, despite Trump and Republican leaders in several states having "pulled virtually every lever available" besides ending the Iran war. That assessment suggests that the policy tools most readily available to elected officials have already been used, and that the remaining major factor — the war — is not something that can be resolved by domestic fuel policy alone.

De Haan also noted a mixed pattern in recent price movements. Average prices fell in a majority of states over the last week, which would normally point toward broader relief. However, a spike in the Great Lakes region caused by a refinery issue nearly offset that decline. That spike is now clearing, according to De Haan, but its effect illustrates how a localized supply disruption can blunt a national trend.

Looking ahead to the election itself, De Haan's outlook was restrained. He wrote that the national average for gasoline is likely to remain above $4 and that diesel is likely to remain above $6 heading into the election. States, he noted, have moved to cut fuel taxes in an effort to provide relief, but those steps have not been enough to bring the national average down sharply.

That outlook was consistent with an earlier assessment from De Haan. In a September 8 blog post, he wrote that prices were likely to remain elevated as long as there is ongoing military conflict in the Middle East. "Meaningful price relief unlikely in the near term," he wrote, adding that motorists should brace for volatility.

Taken together, the two posts paint a picture of a market in which short-term movements are possible — prices fell in most states in the latest week, and a regional spike is clearing — but in which a sustained, significant drop before Election Day is not expected. Volatility, rather than steady relief, is the near-term expectation.

This analyst view sits in tension with the president's prediction that pump prices are going to come down. Both can be true in different time frames: prices may ease over time, while still remaining above $4 through the election. But for voters heading to the polls on November 3, the distinction matters. A promise of future relief is different from relief already visible at the pump.

Public Mood: Low Confidence in Government and the Economy

Gasoline prices do not exist in a political vacuum. They are experienced alongside broader attitudes about whether the government can improve people's lives and whether the economy is moving in the right direction. Recent Gallup polling suggests that mood is pessimistic.

A Gallup poll on October 21 found that only 43 percent of Americans believed the federal government was capable of making a positive impact on their lives, down from 51 percent in 2025. That decline of eight percentage points over roughly a year indicates a weakening of public faith in government's ability to deliver positive change.

An earlier Gallup poll in July painted a similarly downbeat picture of economic sentiment. Only 22 percent of Americans viewed the economy as excellent or good, while 44 percent called it poor. In addition, 67 percent thought the economy is getting worse, compared with 28 percent who thought it is getting better.

Those figures help explain why an issue like gasoline prices can carry outsized political weight. When a large share of the public already believes the economy is getting worse, a visible cost increase at the pump can reinforce that perception. Conversely, when confidence in government is low, promises that prices will come down may be met with skepticism, even by voters who might otherwise be sympathetic.

It is important not to overstate what any single poll can show. Polls capture attitudes at a moment in time, and attitudes can shift. But the combination of the October and July Gallup findings — low confidence in government, low ratings for the economy, and a widespread sense that conditions are worsening — suggests a challenging environment for any incumbent party seeking to persuade voters that things are improving.

In that environment, the way a leader talks about prices can matter as much as the prices themselves. Trump's defiant tone in Rome — dismissing expected criticism and insisting the country is getting stronger — may energize supporters who share that outlook. It may also frustrate voters who are primarily focused on what they paid at their last fill-up and who are looking for concrete relief rather than a broader argument about national strength.

The Freedom Fuel Experiment and State-Level Prices

Earlier in 2026, the White House promoted an initiative intended to showcase lower-cost fuel options. In July, the administration touted 25 Freedom Fuel stations in the northeast selling gasoline at $3.47 per gallon. Those stations were concentrated in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

The initiative, however, had little impact on pump prices in those states overall. According to AAA figures on October 26, the average price in Pennsylvania was $4.44 per gallon, while the average in New Jersey was $4.17 per gallon. Both were close to, or above, the national average of $4.29, and both were well above the $3.47 price highlighted in July.

That gap illustrates a recurring challenge with showcase programs: a limited number of stations offering a lower price does not necessarily change the broader market in a state. Drivers who do not live near one of those stations, or who cannot easily reach one, will still pay the prevailing local price. And even for those who can, the broader state average reflects the many stations that are not part of the program.

The Freedom Fuel example also raises a question about scale. Twenty-five stations, concentrated in two states, represent a small fraction of the thousands of stations operating across the northeast and the country. For a program to move a state average in a meaningful way, it would need to operate at a much larger scale, or to influence wholesale and supply conditions more broadly.

None of this means that lower-price stations are unhelpful to the drivers who use them. A price of $3.47 per gallon, where available, is materially lower than a state average above $4. But as a response to a statewide or national price problem, the July initiative did not translate into lower average prices in Pennsylvania and New Jersey by late October.

Pressure on Retailers and the Push for E15

Trump has also taken other approaches to gasoline prices during his presidency. He previously pressured retailers over alleged price gouging, arguing that pump prices should reflect market conditions more fairly. He also pushed Congress for higher-ethanol gasoline sales, a policy aimed at expanding fuel supply options.

That ethanol push continued into 2026. On June 24, 2026, an updated budget request asked Congress to codify permanent year-round sales of E15, gasoline containing 15 percent ethanol. Year-round E15 sales would make a higher-ethanol blend available in all seasons, rather than only during certain periods.

Supporters of expanded E15 sales argue that it can increase fuel supply and provide drivers with a lower-cost option at the pump. Critics and skeptics, in other debates over ethanol policy, have raised questions about infrastructure, vehicle compatibility, and broader market effects, though the specific policy debate is complex and depends on how any legislation is written.

What is relevant for the midterm debate is that the E15 proposal represents a longer-term policy lever, not an immediate fix. Even if Congress acted, the process of codifying year-round sales, and any subsequent effect on prices, would unfold over time. It would not by itself be expected to produce a sharp drop in prices in the days before November 3.

Similarly, pressure on retailers over price gouging can influence public debate and may affect behavior at the margins, but it does not change the underlying supply, refining, and geopolitical factors that analysts cite as drivers of current prices. That is consistent with De Haan's observation that leaders have already pulled virtually every lever available short of ending the Iran war.

Together, these efforts show an administration that has tried multiple approaches — targeted station promotions, pressure on retailers, and a legislative push on ethanol — without yet achieving the kind of broad price relief that would be visible in the national average before the election.

What This Means for the Midterms

Midterm elections are often described as a referendum on the party in power, and economic conditions are typically among the most important factors voters weigh. Gasoline prices are a particularly potent part of that assessment because they are experienced frequently, visibly, and personally.

For Republican candidates, Trump's framing offers a possible line of argument: prices should be judged against past peaks, the country is getting stronger, and prices will come down. That message may resonate with voters who prioritize broader national strength, who distrust critical media coverage, or who believe that current policies will pay off over time.

For Democratic candidates, the current numbers offer a different line of argument: the national average is $4.29 per gallon, up $1.23 from a year ago, and analysts do not expect significant relief before Election Day. That message may resonate with voters who are focused on household costs right now and who are skeptical that future promises will translate into lower prices soon.

Which argument prevails will depend on many factors beyond gasoline alone, including other economic issues, candidate quality, turnout, and local concerns. But in races where margins are narrow, even a small shift in how voters feel about the economy in the final days can matter.

The timing is also important. With Election Day on November 3, there is little time for a sustained change in fuel prices to alter voter perceptions. If De Haan's forecast proves accurate and the national average remains above $4 through the election, voters will cast ballots while still paying high prices, regardless of what they are told about future relief.

What's Next

Several developments are worth watching in the days leading up to November 3 and in the period immediately after the election.

First, watch the daily and weekly AAA national average. If prices begin to fall more broadly, and if regional spikes continue to clear, the national average could ease, even if it remains above $4. If new supply disruptions emerge, however, prices could move in the opposite direction. The direction of travel, as much as the level, may shape voter perceptions.

Second, watch for further statements from Trump and from candidates in competitive races. The Rome rally remarks set a tone, but candidates in different states and districts may adapt that message to local conditions. In states where prices are higher than the national average, such as Pennsylvania at $4.44 on October 26, the issue may be raised more forcefully. In states where prices are lower, it may feature less prominently.

Third, watch for state-level actions on fuel taxes and other relief measures. States have already moved to cut fuel taxes, according to De Haan, and further actions before the election could provide some local relief, even if they do not transform the national picture.

Fourth, watch developments in the Middle East and in the Iran war. De Haan has linked elevated prices to ongoing military conflict in the region, and he has identified ending the war as the major lever not yet pulled. Any significant change in that conflict could affect energy markets, though the timing and scale of any effect would be uncertain.

Fifth, watch what happens after the election. Campaign promises about prices coming down will face a different test once voting is over: whether prices actually fall, and by how much. The E15 proposal, state tax measures, and broader energy policy will continue to be debated regardless of the midterm outcome.

Finally, watch the polling. The October Gallup finding on confidence in government and the July findings on economic sentiment provide a baseline. New polling in the final days, and post-election analysis of voter attitudes, may show whether gasoline prices and economic perceptions shifted minds or simply reinforced views voters already held.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the national average gas price on October 26, 2026?

According to AAA, the national average gas price was $4.29 per gallon on Monday, October 26, 2026. That was up $1.23 from the same date a year ago.

What did Trump say about gas prices at the rally in Rome, Georgia?

At the rally, Trump said voters are "still paying lower than Biden and Obama." He also said: "I can just see the fake headlines... 'President Trump is talking about the money they're making while people are suffering at the pump.' That'll be the headline. But I said I don't give a damn, I'm going to say: We're making a frickin' fortune. Our country is getting stronger and stronger all the time. And those pump prices are going to come down."

How do current prices compare with past peaks under Biden, Obama, and Trump?

According to peak monthly averages from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the Biden peak was $5.03 in June 2022, the Obama peak was $3.96 in May 2011, and the highest monthly average under Trump was $4.60 in May 2026. These are monthly averages, not single-day prices, and they occurred under different market conditions.

Are gas prices expected to fall significantly before Election Day?

GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan wrote on October 26, 2026, that gas prices are unlikely to significantly decrease before Election Day on November 3. He forecast that the national average for gasoline is likely to remain above $4 and diesel above $6 heading into the election, even though prices fell in a majority of states over the previous week and a Great Lakes refinery-issue spike is now clearing.

What did recent Gallup polls show about public confidence and the economy?

A Gallup poll on October 21 found that only 43 percent of Americans believed the federal government was capable of making a positive impact on their lives, down from 51 percent in 2025. An earlier Gallup poll in July found that only 22 percent viewed the economy as excellent or good, 44 percent called it poor, and 67 percent thought the economy is getting worse, compared with 28 percent who thought it is getting better.

What was the Freedom Fuel initiative, and did it lower state prices?

In July, the White House touted 25 Freedom Fuel stations in the northeast selling gasoline at $3.47 per gallon, concentrated in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. The initiative had little impact on overall pump prices in those states: on October 26, AAA averages were $4.44 in Pennsylvania and $4.17 in New Jersey.

What is E15, and what did the June 2026 budget request propose?

E15 is gasoline containing 15 percent ethanol. On June 24, 2026, an updated budget request asked Congress to codify permanent year-round E15 sales, which would make the higher-ethanol blend available in all seasons.

Sources

USA Today, "Trump downplays high gas prices before Election Day," October 26, 2026: https://www.usatoday.com/story/cars/news/2026/10/26/trump-high-gas-prices-before-election-day/92449912007/

AAA national and state average gas price figures, as reported by USA Today on October 26, 2026.

GasBuddy figures and analysis by Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis, in blog posts on September 8 and October 26, 2026, as reported by USA Today.

U.S. Energy Information Administration peak monthly average figures, as reported by USA Today on October 26, 2026.

Gallup polls from July and October 21, 2026, as reported by USA Today.