Trump Approval Ticks Up to 32% in New Reuters/Ipsos Poll, but GOP Still Trails Democrats a Week Before Midterms
What the New Reuters/Ipsos Poll Actually Says
The Reuters/Ipsos poll released on October 26 surveyed 1,679 adults over five days, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points. Its headline findings are straightforward: President Trump's approval rating stands at 32%, up from 31% the previous week. The previous week's 31% figure was a record low for Trump across his White House terms in Reuters/Ipsos tracking. On the generic congressional ballot — which asks voters which party they would support for Congress rather than naming individual candidates — Democrats lead Republicans by 11 points. That 11-point Democratic advantage is down one point from the previous week's record high for Democrats in the same tracking. A one-point move in either direction is within the poll's 2-point margin of error, so the correct way to read this survey is not as a dramatic turnaround but as a small, possibly stabilizing shift after weeks of decline. The story of the poll is less "Trump surges" and more "the slide has, for now, paused." The stakes attached to these numbers are high for the Republican Party. Losing control of either chamber of Congress would make it more difficult for Trump to advance his agenda during the final two years of his term. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the Senate, and a much smaller number of House seats to flip the chamber, where Republicans currently hold the narrowest possible majority.
A Modest Rebound, Not a Recovery
It is important to place the new 32% figure in context. A single tracking poll and the broader polling averages can tell different stories, because they measure different things at different times. As of Monday, October 19, the RealClearPolitics average showed Trump with a 38.2% approval rating and a 60.3% disapproval rating. The New York Times polling average had Trump at 37% approval and 61% disapproval, while Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin average showed 37% approval and 60.2% disapproval. Those averages are higher than the Reuters/Ipsos 32% figure, which is a normal feature of polling: different pollsters use different methods, different samples, and different likely-voter or adult screens, and a single survey can sit several points away from the average. The averages, which combine many polls, smooth out individual outliers. What matters is the direction of travel, and on that point the averages and the new Reuters/Ipsos poll agree: Trump's improvement in the latest survey contrasts with his broader decline across several polling averages over recent weeks. In other words, one poll showing a one-point uptick does not erase a weeks-long downward trend — it interrupts it. For the White House, the practical question is whether the 32% figure marks a floor. Trump has spent the final weeks of the campaign on an intense rally schedule across battleground and Republican-leaning states, arguing that his agenda — on the economy, immigration, and energy — deserves two more years of unified Republican control in Congress. Whether that blitz moves the numbers further will become clearer as the final pre-election polls are released this week.
The Generic Ballot: Democrats Still Ahead by Double Digits
While the presidential approval number gets the headlines, the generic congressional ballot is arguably the more important number for the midterms themselves, because it measures the vote for Congress directly. The new Reuters/Ipsos poll gives Democrats an 11-point generic-ballot advantage. That is down one point from the previous week's record high, but it remains a double-digit lead. And it is consistent with other recent surveys: A New York Times/Siena University poll released over the weekend also showed Republicans trailing Democrats by 11 percentage points on the generic ballot. A Focaldata/Financial Times poll released Sunday, October 25, showed Democrats leading Republicans by 9 percentage points. Three different pollsters, using different methods, all landing on a Democratic advantage of 9 to 11 points is a meaningful pattern. It suggests that the Democratic lead is real, even if its exact size is uncertain. It is also worth noting how the generic ballot has moved over the course of this election cycle. Earlier in October, a Reuters/Ipsos survey put Democrats ahead 47% to 35%, a 12-point margin that was itself the widest lead of the cycle at the time. The new 11-point margin is slightly narrower, but it is still in the same range. The race has not fundamentally changed shape; it has, at most, tightened by a point. The generic ballot asks voters which party they would support for Congress rather than naming specific candidates. It provides a national snapshot rather than a prediction for individual races, and control of Congress is decided race by race, not by the national popular vote. A national lead does not automatically translate into a majority, because the distribution of votes across districts and states matters as much as the total. Still, a sustained double-digit national lead is the kind of signal that forecasters weigh heavily, because it tends to reflect a broad national mood rather than a quirk of one survey.
What Forecasters and Prediction Markets Say
Polls are snapshots. Forecasts and prediction markets try to convert those snapshots into probabilities of winning control of each chamber. On that front, the picture remains favorable to Democrats, though not certain. According to VoteHub, Democrats have an 88% chance of winning the House of Representatives, with a projected total of 232 seats. In the Senate, VoteHub gives Democrats a 60% chance of retaking control, with a projected 52 seats. Those figures sit alongside other recent projections that point in the same direction but with different levels of confidence. Decision Desk HQ recently gave Democrats a 79% chance of winning the House and a 57% chance of winning the Senate. Prediction markets have been more bullish on Democrats in the House — Polymarket pricing Democrats at around 93% for the House and 65% for the Senate, with Kalshi at similar levels. The differences between these numbers are a reminder that a forecast is a probability, not a result. An 88% chance of winning the House still leaves a 12% chance of the opposite outcome, and a 60% Senate probability is close to a coin flip with a lean. Nobody has called a single race yet, and the final week of campaigning, early-vote returns, and late-breaking events can all move the numbers. What the forecasts agree on is the hierarchy of the two chambers: the House leans more clearly toward Democrats than the Senate does. That is consistent with the structure of the two races. All 435 House seats are on the ballot, and only a small number of competitive districts need to flip for control to change hands. In the Senate, only 35 seats are up, and Democrats need to win nearly all of the competitive ones while defending their own vulnerable seats.
Why the Final Week Still Matters
With one week to go, several factors could still move the race. The Texas factor: President Trump is campaigning in Texas on Tuesday, October 27, with rallies in Corpus Christi and Lubbock in support of Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, who faces Democrat James Talarico in one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country. Recent polling has shown that race in a dead heat, and the outcome in Texas could be decisive for Senate control. The early vote: More than 31 million Americans had already cast ballots as of October 27, according to CNN's analysis of early-vote data. Early voting now accounts for a large share of the total vote, and the composition of the early electorate — which tends to skew older — is being watched closely by both parties. The approval-versus-ballot gap: One of the more interesting features of this cycle is that Trump's approval rating (in the 30s in most surveys) sits below the Republican share of the generic ballot (in the low 40s in most surveys). That gap suggests that a meaningful number of voters who disapprove of the president still plan to vote Republican for Congress — or, conversely, that the Republican congressional vote is holding up better than the president's personal standing. How that gap resolves on Election Day is one of the key unknowns of the final week. Late polls: The final round of high-quality polls, including state-level surveys in the decisive Senate states, will be released in the coming days. Those polls will either confirm the current picture or show late movement, and campaigns will adjust their closing messages accordingly.
What Happens Next
The final week of the campaign will be dominated by rallies, advertising, and get-out-the-vote operations. Trump is scheduled to continue his rally blitz, with stops in Texas on Tuesday and further events expected in the days that follow. Democratic leaders, including former President Barack Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, have also been campaigning in key states. Early voting continues in most states through the end of the week, with in-person early voting ending October 30 in Texas and October 31 in North Carolina, among other deadlines. Mail ballots must be received by 8 p.m. on November 3 in states such as Pennsylvania. On Election Day itself, results will begin to arrive on the evening of November 3, but the full picture may take longer. Close races, mail ballots, and states with longer counting timelines could leave control of one or both chambers uncertain for days after the polls close. For now, the new Reuters/Ipsos poll tells a story of a small stabilization, not a comeback. Trump's approval is up one point from a record low. The Democratic generic-ballot lead is down one point from a record high. Both parties can find something in those numbers — but neither can claim that the race has fundamentally changed.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is President Trump's approval rating in the new Reuters/Ipsos poll? A: Trump's approval rating is 32% in the Reuters/Ipsos poll released on October 26, 2026, up one percentage point from 31% the previous week, which was a record low across his White House terms in that tracking.
Q: How many people were surveyed, and what is the margin of error? A: The five-day Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 1,679 adults, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points. A one-point change is within that margin of error, so the uptick should be read as a small shift, not a dramatic surge.
Q: What does the generic congressional ballot show? A: The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll gives Democrats an 11-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, down one point from the previous week's record high. A New York Times/Siena poll also showed an 11-point Democratic lead, and a Focaldata/Financial Times poll showed a 9-point Democratic lead.
Q: How does the new poll compare with the polling averages? A: As of October 19, the RealClearPolitics average showed Trump at 38.2% approval and 60.3% disapproval. The New York Times average had him at 37% approval and 61% disapproval, and Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin average showed 37% approval and 60.2% disapproval. Single polls can differ from averages because of different methods and samples.
Q: What do forecasters say about control of Congress? A: According to VoteHub, Democrats have an 88% chance of winning the House (projected 232 seats) and a 60% chance of winning the Senate (projected 52 seats). Other forecasters, including Decision Desk HQ, and prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, also favor Democrats in the House, with the Senate closer.
Q: Why does the generic ballot matter more than the approval rating for the midterms? A: The generic ballot measures the vote for Congress directly, while the approval rating measures views of the president. Control of Congress is decided race by race, so the generic ballot is a closer proxy for the House popular vote — though the distribution of votes across districts and states ultimately decides control.
Sources
USA TODAY: "Trump approval ticks up as GOP trails before midterms: poll" (Reuters/Ipsos poll released October 26, 2026; New York Times/Siena poll; Focaldata/Financial Times poll; VoteHub projections; RealClearPolitics, New York Times, and Silver Bulletin averages as of October 19, 2026). Prior coverage: Reuters/Ipsos generic ballot, Democrats 47% to 35%, reported earlier in October 2026. CNN analysis of early-vote data: more than 31 million ballots cast as of October 27, 2026.
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