Texas Poll: Talarico Leads Paxton 50-45 as Hispanic Voters Back Democrats, Univision Survey Finds

One week before Election Day, a new statewide Texas poll finds Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in the race for the U.S. Senate, while Hispanic voters — nearly a third of the Texas electorate — favor Democrats in all three major statewide contests.

The N+ Univision poll, released on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, puts Talarico ahead of Paxton 50% to 45%, with 5% undecided. In the governor's race, Republican Governor Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 48% to 46%, with 5% undecided. On the U.S. House ballot, Republicans lead 48% to 45%, with 6% undecided.

The survey is the second statewide poll in the N+ Univision series, and it features the largest sample of Hispanic voters of any statewide Texas poll, with 980 Hispanic registered voters interviewed alongside a statewide sample of 1,000 registered voters. The poll was conducted by YouGov from October 13 to October 21, 2026.

The results land on the same day President Donald Trump is scheduled to campaign in Texas for Paxton, with rallies in Corpus Christi and Lubbock, and they add a new data point to a Senate race that other recent surveys have shown as tighter. The poll's most striking findings concern Hispanic voters, who back Hinojosa 52% to 43%, Talarico 55% to 37%, and Democrats on the House ballot 52% to 41%.

The Topline Numbers: Senate, Governor and House

The statewide numbers show three close races, none of them outside the poll's margin of error.

In the Senate race, Talarico's five-point lead over Paxton matches the margin he held in the September N+ Univision poll, suggesting a stable advantage rather than a sudden shift. The poll notes that Talarico is running ahead of the Democratic baseline on the House ballot, a sign that the Senate candidate is outperforming his party's generic standing in the state.

In the governor's race, Abbott's two-point lead is a small move from September, when the race was tied at 47% each. Hinojosa, a Democrat, has narrowed the gap with Hispanic voters in one age group but still trails statewide, and the 5% of voters who remain undecided could still decide a race this close.

The House ballot moved the most since September, shifting from a two-point Democratic edge to a three-point Republican edge. That five-point swing in the generic ballot stands in contrast to Talarico's steady Senate lead, and it underlines a split-ticket pattern in the survey: some Texas voters who favor Republicans for the House are backing the Democrat for Senate, or vice versa.

The statewide margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, which means the governor's race and the House ballot are effectively within the margin, while Talarico's Senate lead sits just outside it. The Hispanic sample carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

Hispanic Voters Break for Democrats in All Three Races

The poll's defining feature is its Hispanic oversample, and its results show a clear Democratic advantage among Hispanic voters in every contest tested.

Hinojosa leads Abbott 52% to 43% among Hispanic voters. Talarico leads Paxton 55% to 37%, an 18-point margin. Democrats lead the House ballot 52% to 41%. Those margins are far wider than the statewide numbers, and they show why both parties have invested so heavily in Hispanic outreach in Texas.

Texas is home to nearly 6.3 million eligible Hispanic voters, who make up about 31.7% of the state's electorate, according to the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute, cited in the poll release. Hispanics also account for more than 45% of the state's eligible voters ages 18 to 24, making them a growing share of the youngest voters in the state.

In high-density Hispanic border counties such as Starr, Webb and Hidalgo, Hispanics make up 92% to 97% of residents, according to U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey estimates for 2020-2024. Those counties, and the heavily Hispanic districts along the border and in the state's major cities, are central to both parties' turnout strategies in the final week.

The age breakdowns show movement beneath the surface. Among Hispanic voters ages 35 to 49, Hinojosa's lead narrowed from 13 points in September to seven points now. Talarico's margin grew from 27 points to 34 points among Hispanic voters under 35, but narrowed from 13 points to three points among those 65 and older. The poll cautions that subgroup estimates come from smaller samples and are directional rather than precise.

A Regional Split Inside Texas

The Hispanic electorate is not uniform, and the poll's regional breakdowns show three different states within Texas.

In North Texas, Abbott leads among Hispanic voters by about 10 points, and Republicans lead the House ballot by about 11 points, while the Senate race is nearly even. That region stands apart from the rest of the state and is the one place where Hispanic voters lean Republican.

In Central Texas, Democrats lead by 19 to 21 points across all three contests. Talarico's widest regional margin, 29 points, comes among Hispanic voters in South Texas, where his lead over Paxton is at its largest.

The regional pattern matters because Texas campaigns allocate their final-week advertising and turnout resources by region. A candidate who is competitive in North Texas but trailing badly in the south faces a different map than one whose support is evenly spread, and the poll suggests the Senate race will be decided by how those regional margins hold up through Election Day.

Immigration Enforcement: The Dividing Line

If one issue explains the Hispanic vote in this poll, it is immigration enforcement.

Fifty-six percent of Hispanic voters say immigration enforcement has gone too far, compared with 50% of voters statewide. That includes 29% who say the border needed securing and 27% who say the situation at the border was overstated, a split that shows even voters who wanted stronger enforcement are divided on whether the current approach has gone beyond it.

At the same time, Hispanic voters do not see border security and enforcement concerns as opposites. Sixty-two percent want the country to pursue border security and a pathway to citizenship for long-term undocumented immigrants together, while 29% want border security addressed first.

Concern reaches into families and personal networks. Forty-three percent of Hispanic voters are very or somewhat worried that they, a family member or someone close could be affected by immigration enforcement, compared with 31% statewide. Fifty-seven percent have little or no confidence in Immigration and Customs Enforcement, known as ICE, compared with 49% statewide.

The divide is sharpest among Hispanic voters who supported Trump in 2024 and now back Talarico: 71% of them have little or no confidence in ICE, compared with 19% of those who support Paxton. The poll's analysis presents that gap as evidence that views of enforcement, rather than party loyalty alone, are driving some voters' choices in the Senate race.

Democrats lead Republicans on 11 of the 12 issues tested among Hispanic voters. Their largest advantage is on protecting immigrant rights, 51% to 27%. Border security is the exception, where Republicans hold a narrow 40% to 38% edge.

Trump's 2024 Hispanic Coalition Shows Cracks

The poll also tests the durability of the coalition that helped Trump win Hispanic support in 2024, and it finds a coalition that is mostly intact but fraying at the edges.

Among Hispanic voters who supported Trump in 2024, 65% feel good about that vote and would make the same choice again, while 13% have some doubts, 10% have serious doubts and 8% regret their vote. That means roughly one in three Hispanic Trump voters from 2024 now harbors some level of doubt or regret.

The political consequences of those doubts are clear in the poll's cross-tabulations. Among Hispanic voters who stand by their 2024 vote, about 5% support Hinojosa and 9% support Talarico. Among those with some doubts, serious doubts or regret, support rises to about 34% for Hinojosa and 44% for Talarico.

The pattern cuts both ways for the campaigns. For Democrats, it suggests a pool of persuadable voters who have already broken once with their 2024 choice. For Republicans, it suggests the task in the final week is less about winning new voters than about holding the majority of the 2024 coalition that still says it would vote the same way again.

The Economy and Data Centers

Economic pressure is part of the story, too. Forty-two percent of Hispanic voters say their household finances are worse than a year ago, compared with 23% who say they are better. Groceries are the top source of pressure at 63%, followed by gasoline and transportation at 50% and utilities at 37%.

The economic divide tracks the Senate race as well. Forty-nine percent of Hispanic Trump voters who now support Talarico say their finances have worsened, compared with 23% of those who support Paxton, suggesting that personal economic experience is one of the forces pulling some 2024 Trump voters toward the Democrat.

Data centers add a local dimension that campaigns have not always foreseen. Forty-eight percent of Hispanic voters oppose data centers being built in their communities, compared with 25% who support them. Opposition is highest where voters feel they have the least say: about seven in 10 Hispanic voters in Central Texas say their community has very little or no influence over where data centers are built, and about two-thirds oppose local construction.

The data-center finding is a reminder that midterm campaigns are fought on local issues as well as national ones, and that a project sited in a voter's own neighborhood can matter as much as a debate in Washington.

How This Poll Compares

The Univision result does not stand alone, and it differs from some other recent surveys of the Texas Senate race.

An InsiderAdvantage survey reported earlier this week put Paxton narrowly ahead, a reminder that different pollsters, using different methods and samples, can produce different pictures of the same race. The Univision poll's distinctive feature is its large Hispanic sample, which gives it a closer read on a group that makes up nearly a third of the electorate but is often underrepresented in statewide samples.

The September N+ Univision poll provides the trend line. Since then, the governor's race moved from a tie to a two-point Abbott lead, Talarico's five-point Senate lead held steady, and the House ballot moved from a Democratic edge to a Republican one. Taken together, the two polls describe a Texas that is competitive but not transformed: close statewide, with Democrats holding an edge in the Senate race and Republicans holding edges in the governor's race and the House ballot.

Prediction markets have also leaned toward Talarico in recent days, though markets measure trader sentiment, not votes, and they can move quickly on news. The only numbers that will settle the race are the ballots themselves, and Texas early voting runs through October 30.

What Happens Next

The final week of the Texas campaign will be intense. Trump is scheduled to hold rallies in Corpus Christi and Lubbock on Tuesday, October 27, campaigning for Paxton, and Talarico is holding a counter-rally in Lubbock the same evening. Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to campaign in Weatherford on October 29.

Early voting in Texas runs through Friday, October 30, and Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. As of October 27, more than 4.5 million ballots had already been cast in Texas, according to early-vote trackers, a record pace for a midterm.

For Paxton, the task is to close a five-point gap in a poll that shows him trailing among the state's fastest-growing voter group. For Talarico, the task is to hold a lead that has been steady since September while turning out Hispanic voters in Central and South Texas, where his margins are widest. For Abbott and Hinojosa, a two-point race with 5% undecided means the governor's contest could still go either way.

One week out, the Univision poll's message is that Texas is close, that Hispanic voters are central to the outcome, and that immigration enforcement, the economy and local issues like data centers are all shaping how those voters decide.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Who leads the Texas Senate race in the new Univision poll?
A: Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 45%, with 5% undecided, in the N+ Univision poll released October 27, 2026.

Q: Who leads the Texas governor's race?
A: Republican Governor Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 48% to 46%, with 5% undecided.

Q: How do Hispanic voters break in the poll?
A: Hispanic voters back Hinojosa 52% to 43% for governor, Talarico 55% to 37% for Senate, and Democrats 52% to 41% on the House ballot.

Q: How big was the poll, and when was it conducted?
A: YouGov interviewed 1,000 registered Texas voters and an additional oversample of 980 Hispanic registered voters, from October 13 to October 21, 2026. The statewide margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Q: What do Hispanic voters think about immigration enforcement?
A: Fifty-six percent say enforcement has gone too far, compared with 50% statewide. Sixty-two percent want border security and a pathway to citizenship pursued together, while 29% want border security addressed first.

Q: When does Texas early voting end, and when is Election Day?
A: Texas early voting runs through Friday, October 30, and Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Sources: TelevisaUnivision press release, "N+ Univision Poll Finds Texas Races Close, While Hispanic Voters Favor Democrats in Governor, Senate and House Contests" (October 27, 2026); N+ Univision Poll: el Poder en Juego en Texas 2, conducted by YouGov, October 13-21, 2026. All poll figures in this article are from that poll as released by TelevisaUnivision on October 27, 2026.