New York Times/Siena Poll: South Carolina Senate Race a Dead Heat, Flanagan Opens Wide Lead in Minnesota, Moody Holds Florida

Introduction

The final week of the 2026 midterm campaign has a new set of numbers to argue over. The New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters released Wednesday, October 28, 2026, covering Florida, Minnesota, and South Carolina, delivers three very different stories: a dead heat in South Carolina, a wide Democratic lead in Minnesota, and a steady Republican advantage in Florida.

The headline finding is South Carolina. Democrat Annie Andrews and Republican Darline Graham are tied at 48 percent each in the state's Senate race, according to the poll — a result that puts a seat Republicans have long treated as safe squarely into toss-up territory with less than a week until Election Day on Tuesday, November 3.

In Minnesota, Democrat Peggy Flanagan leads Republican Michele Tafoya 54 percent to 40 percent, a 14-point margin that is far wider than the polling averages that had shown the race within a few points. In Florida, Republican Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon 50 percent to 44 percent in the Senate race, while Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly 48 percent to 44 percent in the governor's race.

Together, the three states sketch the shape of the closing Senate map: one race that has broken open, one that has tightened into a tie, and one that has barely moved at all. With control of the Senate still genuinely contested — forecasters and prediction markets give Democrats a narrow edge but no certainty — each of these results matters for the final arithmetic.

South Carolina: A Tie That Changes the Map

South Carolina is the poll's biggest surprise, and the Siena Research Institute said so itself. "As the battles wage across the map for control of the U.S. Senate, South Carolina now jumps to centerstage," said SRI Executive Director Don Levy in the release. "Republican Darline Graham, recently appointed to the senate, is locked in a toss-up race with Democrat Annie Andrews as Graham leads by less than one point."

The topline numbers in the release show Andrews and Graham tied at 48 percent each; Levy's comment reflects the unrounded figures behind that tie, in which Graham sits a fraction of a point ahead. Either way, the message is the same: a race that was not on most battleground lists a month ago is now one of the closest in the country.

The South Carolina result lands in the middle of an already turbulent Republican week in the state. A feud inside the South Carolina GOP has been playing out in public, with Representative Ralph Norman refusing to back Graham and two former governors endorsing Andrews instead — a split that has drawn national attention and raised questions about Republican unity in the state. The new poll suggests that division may be more than a sideshow: it may be showing up in the numbers.

Graham's position is unusual. As a recently appointed senator, she has not previously won a statewide election in her own right, and the poll suggests she has not yet consolidated the Republican base to the degree an incumbent usually would by the final week. Andrews, the Democrat, has benefited from the split and from a national environment that has favored Democrats in recent weeks, with the party leading the generic congressional ballot by a wide margin in national surveys.

The governor's race in South Carolina is less close: Republican Alan Wilson leads Democrat Jermaine Johnson 51 percent to 44 percent, a seven-point margin that suggests Republican strength down the ballot has not collapsed even as the Senate race has tightened. That split — a tied Senate race alongside a comfortable Republican governor's lead — is a reminder that voters are still distinguishing between candidates, and that a Senate tie does not automatically mean a Democratic wave in the state.

For the Senate majority, South Carolina's new status matters enormously. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the chamber. If South Carolina is genuinely in play, it gives Democrats one more path to a majority — and it forces Republicans to spend money and attention defending a seat they had not budgeted for. With six days to go, that is the kind of late development that can reshape both parties' closing strategies.

Minnesota: Flanagan's Lead Widens Dramatically

If South Carolina is the poll's surprise, Minnesota is its exclamation point. Flanagan's 54-40 lead over Tafoya is a 14-point margin — far wider than the Politix+ polling average updated October 28, which had Flanagan ahead by just 3.3 points across 13 polls, and wider than any recent survey of the race.

"In Minnesota Democrat Peggy Flanagan enjoys a 14-point lead over Republican Michele Tafoya," Levy said in the release, a line that understates how different this number looks from the rest of the polling record.

The gap between the Siena result and the polling average raises an obvious question: is this an outlier, or is the race actually breaking open? The honest answer is that a single poll cannot settle that question, and the Siena survey's own history counsels caution — its state polls have sometimes shown wider margins than other pollsters before converging late. But the direction of the finding fits with other evidence from Minnesota's final week: strong early voting, a Democratic turnout operation that has been strong in the Twin Cities suburbs, and a national environment that has moved toward Democrats in the closing weeks.

The Minnesota result also reframes the week's other Minnesota story. Just two days earlier, President Donald Trump had warned on Truth Social that "the federal government will be watching closely" in Minnesota and that the only way Tafoya could lose was through cheating — a post that drew a sharp rebuke from Senator Tina Smith, who accused the president of laying the groundwork to dispute the result. A 14-point deficit, if it holds, would make that dispute considerably harder to sustain: it is one thing to question a close count, and quite another to question a double-digit margin.

The governor's race in Minnesota is wider still: Democrat Amy Klobuchar leads Republican Lisa Demuth 56 percent to 38 percent, an 18-point margin. That result suggests Minnesota's Democratic strength is not confined to the Senate race, and that the state's long Democratic presidential streak — unbroken since 1976 — is not about to end at the state level either.

For the Senate map, a comfortable Flanagan win would lock down a seat Democrats need and free resources for tighter races elsewhere. Minnesota had been counted among the competitive races both parties were watching; if Siena is right, it may be leaving that category in the final days.

Florida: Moody Holds Steady, Donalds Leads for Governor

Florida is the poll's steadiest result, and in a volatile week that steadiness is itself news. Moody's 50-44 lead over Nixon in the Senate race matches almost exactly the ActiVote survey released October 27, which had Moody ahead by six points. Two different pollsters, two different methods, the same six-point margin — that kind of agreement is rare in the final week, and it suggests the Florida Senate race has settled into a stable shape.

The governor's race is closer but still Republican: Donalds leads Jolly 48 percent to 44 percent, a four-point margin. That is a narrower lead than Moody's, and it fits with other recent Florida polling that has shown the governor's contest more competitive than the Senate race. Donalds, a Republican congressman, has campaigned as a close ally of the president; Jolly, a former Republican congressman now running as a Democrat, has pitched himself to the state's large pool of independent and moderate voters.

"Republican Ashley Moody holds a 6-point advantage over Democrat Angie Nixon," Levy said in the release, confirming the ActiVote finding from a day earlier.

Florida's early vote has also been substantial, and the Siena numbers suggest that early voting has not fundamentally altered a race that has been Republican-leaning throughout the fall.

What the Three States Say About the Senate

Read together, the three polls tell a story about a Senate map that is still moving in the final week — and moving in both directions at once.

The national picture, as of October 28, has Democrats favored but not certain: Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 57 percent chance of winning the Senate with a projected 51 seats, while prediction markets put Democratic control at roughly 63 to 65 percent. The Siena results fit that picture in an uneven way. Minnesota breaking toward Democrats helps the Democratic path. South Carolina tightening into a tie helps it more. Florida holding for Republicans limits it.

The poll also illustrates why the Senate has remained so hard to call. The three states are not moving together. Minnesota has widened, South Carolina has tightened, Florida has not moved at all. A national wave would push all three in the same direction; what Siena found instead is a set of state-level races with their own dynamics — an appointed senator struggling to consolidate, a Democratic nominee opening a wide lead, and a Republican incumbent holding steady.

That state-by-state variation is also why the final week still matters. Turnout operations, late-deciding voters, and the composition of the Election Day electorate can still move races that look settled — and can settle races that look tied. South Carolina's tie is within any margin of error. Minnesota's 14-point lead is not, but it is a single poll against a narrower average. Florida's six-point margin has now been confirmed twice, but six points is not insurmountable in a state famous for close finishes.

The Poll Itself: What to Know

The survey is a New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters, conducted in partnership with the Siena Research Institute, and released October 28, 2026. The institute published topline results and crosstabs for all three states, and its director, Don Levy, was available to discuss the findings starting at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, October 28.

Siena's polls are among the most closely watched in American politics because of the institute's track record and its transparent methodology, and because the Times/Siena partnership has produced some of the cycle's most consequential surveys. That reputation cuts both ways: when a Times/Siena poll shows something unexpected — a tie in South Carolina, a 14-point lead in Minnesota — it gets attention precisely because the pollster is taken seriously.

At the same time, the usual cautions apply. This is one poll, not an average. Polling averages, which combine many surveys, still show Minnesota closer than Siena does and South Carolina less competitive than Siena does. The truth on Election Day may land between the Siena numbers and the averages, or it may land on one side or the other. The value of this poll is not that it settles the races but that it shows where movement is happening — and where it is not.

What's Next

The final six days will test whether the Siena findings hold or fade. In South Carolina, both parties are likely to pour resources into a race that neither had fully budgeted for a week ago, and the Republican split over Graham's candidacy will face its sharpest test yet. In Minnesota, the question is whether other pollsters confirm Flanagan's wide lead or whether the average reasserts itself. In Florida, the question is whether Jolly can close the governor's gap and whether Nixon can narrow a Senate margin that has now been measured twice at six points.

Trump's own schedule in the final week includes Ohio on Wednesday, October 28, and South Carolina and Florida later in the week — stops that now carry extra weight given the Siena numbers. Vice President JD Vance headlines a rally in Weatherford, Texas, on Thursday, October 29. Democrats, meanwhile, have deployed former President Barack Obama and other surrogates to battleground states in the closing days.

Early voting continues through the end of the week in most states, with Texas early voting ending Friday, October 30, and Georgia early voting running through the same day. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, and close races — South Carolina chief among them — may not be called on election night as mail and absentee ballots continue to be processed.

For voters in Florida, Minnesota, and South Carolina, the practical message is unchanged: check registration status, confirm polling locations and early voting hours, and make a plan to vote. The polls will keep moving. The ballots are what count.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the new New York Times/Siena poll show?

Released October 28, 2026, the poll of likely voters finds South Carolina's Senate race tied at 48-48 between Annie Andrews (D) and Darline Graham (R), Minnesota's Senate race at 54-40 for Peggy Flanagan (D) over Michele Tafoya (R), and Florida's Senate race at 50-44 for Ashley Moody (R) over Angie Nixon (D).

Is the South Carolina Senate race really tied?

According to this poll, yes: Andrews and Graham are each at 48 percent. Siena's Don Levy described Graham as leading by less than one point on the unrounded figures, but the topline result is a tie — and either way, the race is a statistical dead heat.

How does the Minnesota result compare with other polls?

It is much wider. The Politix+ polling average updated October 28 had Flanagan ahead by just 3.3 points across 13 polls, while Siena puts her ahead by 14 points. A single poll can differ from the average; whether other pollsters confirm the wider margin remains to be seen.

Does the Florida result confirm earlier polling?

Yes. Siena's six-point Moody lead matches the ActiVote survey released October 27, which also had Moody ahead by six points. Two pollsters now agree on the Florida Senate margin.

Who leads the governor's races in these states?

In Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar (D) leads Lisa Demuth (R) 56-38. In Florida, Byron Donalds (R) leads David Jolly (D) 48-44. In South Carolina, Alan Wilson (R) leads Jermaine Johnson (D) 51-44.

Why does South Carolina matter for Senate control?

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the Senate. A tied race in a state Republicans have long held gives Democrats one more path to a majority — and forces Republicans to defend a seat they had not expected to be competitive.

When is Election Day?

Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Results in close races may not be known on election night, as mail and absentee ballots continue to be processed after polls close.

Sources

Siena Research Institute, "NYTimes/Siena Poll of Likely Voters – Florida, Minnesota, and South Carolina," October 28, 2026 — https://sri.siena.edu/2026/10/28/nytimes-siena-poll-of-likely-voters-florida-minnesota-and-south-carolina/

Politix+, 2026 Midterm Polls & Polling Averages, updated October 28, 2026 — https://politixplus.com/

USA Today, "Trump, Talarico hit different notes in dueling Texas rallies as Senate fight rages," October 27, 2026 — https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/10/27/trump-talarico-paxton-texas-corpus-christi-lubbock-live-updates--live/92448990007/