Michigan's Senate Candidates Make Their Final Push as More Than 1.2 Million Ballots Are Already Cast

Introduction

Candidates are hustling across Michigan in the final week before the November midterm election, with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers making their closing pitches to voters in a U.S. Senate race that could help decide control of the chamber.

El-Sayed campaigned Monday in Alpena, alongside U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders, while Rogers spoke Monday in Midland about what he believes is at stake. The dueling appearances captured the closing dynamic of a race that has tightened into one of the most closely watched Senate contests in the country.

According to the Michigan Secretary of State, more than 1.2 million Michiganders have already voted in the general election, including 138,000 who cast early in-person ballots over the weekend. With Election Day set for Tuesday, November 3, the final week is now a turnout fight — and both campaigns are treating every day as decisive.

The final-week map

Rogers, speaking in Midland on Monday, framed the election as something larger than party politics.

"It is no longer is Blue vs. Red. This really is about the heart and soul of the United States of America and who we want to be," Rogers said.

El-Sayed, meanwhile, was in Alpena on Monday, campaigning alongside Sanders — a continuation of the Vermont senator's high-profile involvement in the race. Sanders previously campaigned with El-Sayed in other Michigan stops, and former President Barack Obama headlined a Detroit rally for El-Sayed on Saturday, underscoring how much national Democratic star power has been deployed for the candidate.

The geography of the final week tells its own story. Midland and Alpena are not Michigan's largest media markets — they are mid-sized and northern communities where retail campaigning, local news coverage and turnout operations matter more than television advertising. Both candidates are working the state well beyond Detroit and Grand Rapids, chasing votes in places where a few thousand ballots could swing a close race.

Michiganders are not only electing a new U.S. Senator to replace retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters. The ballot also carries a host of other elected positions, school millages, bond issues and ballot questions — a long ballot that rewards campaigns able to turn out voters all the way down the ticket.

A race that has tightened

The Michigan Senate race has been a toss-up for weeks, but the polling trend in the final stretch has shown movement toward El-Sayed.

The most recent detailed survey, from the Glengariff Group, conducted October 19-22, showed El-Sayed leading Rogers 51.4 percent to 45.1 percent. Among definite voters the margin was 50.7 percent to 46.5 percent, and El-Sayed had taken over Rogers' lead among independent voters for the first time in the campaign, winning self-identified independents 45.5 percent to 40 percent, with 15 percent undecided.

That independent-voter reversal is significant. Glengariff pollster Richard Czuba noted that when Glengariff last surveyed the race just before Labor Day, Rogers led among independents at nearly 42 percent to El-Sayed's 28 percent, with 29 percent undecided.

"This is the first time this election that I've seen El-Sayed ahead among the independents. This is the sign that I always look for in Michigan in every race. The margin you're leading by among independents tends to be the margin that you win by," Czuba said.

The broader polling picture points the same way. The 270toWin average had El-Sayed ahead 48.4 percent to 45.2 percent as of October 23, and the Politix+ polling average as of October 28, covering 36 polls, put El-Sayed ahead by 2.4 points. Prediction markets have also leaned toward the Democrat, pricing El-Sayed's chances at around 65 percent.

But Rogers' campaign and Republican allies have not conceded the trend. President Donald Trump rallied for Rogers in Port Huron on Sunday, October 25 — the first visit by a sitting president to that city — and Rogers has used his closing appearances to argue that the race is about the country's direction, not its polling.

The history of this matchup adds another layer. Rogers ran for the same seat in 2024 and lost narrowly to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by less than half a percentage point. His 2026 campaign is, in effect, a second attempt at a seat he came within a whisker of winning — and his team believes the midterm environment, with a Republican president's agenda on the ballot, gives him a different path this time.

The national spotlight on Michigan

Few Senate races have drawn as much national attention as Michigan's. The contest has featured visits from Trump, Obama and Sanders, and it has become a proxy fight over the issues dominating the national campaign: the cost of living, health care, gas prices and the direction of the Trump administration.

El-Sayed has answered attacks on his faith and background directly. At a Detroit rally appearance, he responded to Trump and Republican attacks — including the claim that he is "on the side of the terrorists" — with a line that drew wide attention: "I will be Senator Muhammad to you, bro." The exchange became a defining moment of the race's final weeks and a rallying point for his supporters.

Trump, for his part, has attacked El-Sayed repeatedly on the trail, including at the Port Huron rally, where he also praised Rogers and attacked Democratic opponents. Rogers has sought to keep the focus on the economy and on what he describes as the stakes for the country's identity — the "heart and soul" framing he used in Midland.

The race has also been shaped by the broader midterm environment. Trump's approval rating fell to a record-low 31 percent in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, and Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 47 percent to 35 percent in the same survey. Forecasters favor Democrats to win the House, while the Senate remains a toss-up with a narrow Democratic tilt — making Michigan one of the decisive battlegrounds.

Early voting: the numbers so far

The early-vote totals in Michigan tell a story of intense engagement. More than 1.2 million ballots have already been cast, according to the Secretary of State, with 138,000 early in-person ballots cast over a single weekend.

That pace fits the national pattern. More than 31 million early votes had been banked nationwide as of October 27, according to CNN's analysis, with turnout running ahead of the pace set in 2022. In Michigan, as elsewhere, both parties are watching the early-vote composition closely for clues about which side's voters are turning out — though early-vote totals reveal how many ballots have been cast, not which candidates those voters supported.

For the campaigns, the early-vote numbers cut both ways. A large banked vote means fewer voters left to persuade in the final week — and more urgency for get-out-the-vote operations aimed at supporters who have not yet voted. It also means that the candidates' final-week travel, like Rogers' Midland stop and El-Sayed's Alpena appearance with Sanders, is aimed less at changing minds than at making sure supporters actually cast a ballot.

What is on Michigan's ballot

Beyond the Senate race, Michigan voters will decide a full slate of contests on November 3. The ballot includes other elected positions at the state and local level, along with school millages, bond issues and ballot questions that affect communities across the state.

The Senate race, however, is the contest drawing national money and attention. It is one of seven races rated as toss-ups by forecasters, alongside contests in North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Kansas and Iowa — and one of the few where the polling trend has moved measurably in the final week.

The winner will succeed Peters, who is retiring, and will serve a full six-year term. In a Senate where Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control, Michigan is one of the seats Democrats are defending — and one Republicans believe they can flip.

How Michigan fits the national Senate map

Michigan is one of seven Senate races rated as toss-ups by forecasters, alongside contests in North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Kansas and Iowa. Together, those seven races will decide which party controls the Senate.

The national picture, as of the October 27 forecast roundup, shows Democrats with a narrow edge. Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 57 percent chance of winning the Senate and projects 51 seats for the party. Polymarket traders price Democratic control at about 65 percent, and Kalshi at about 64 percent. Vote-Scope's model, updated October 27, put Democratic Senate control at 73 percent with a projected 54 seats, while a Kalshi-price simulation run by Prediction Markets Picks put Democratic control at 64.9 percent with a median result of 52-48.

In that landscape, Michigan is a Democratic-held seat that Republicans must flip if they want to keep control without winning elsewhere. The Politix+ averages as of October 28 show the shape of the battlefield: Democrats lead in North Carolina (Cooper +9.6), Georgia (Ossoff +8.9), Michigan (El-Sayed +2.4), Alaska (Peltola +1.8) and Maine (Jackson +2.0), while Republicans lead narrowly in Iowa (Hinson +0.6) and Kansas is effectively tied (Hamilton +0.7 in the average). Texas, where Talarico and Paxton are locked in a statistical tie in poll after poll, is the race forecasters say moves Senate control more than any other.

For El-Sayed, holding Michigan is therefore not just about one seat — it is about denying Republicans the flip they need. For Rogers, winning Michigan would be the single biggest step toward keeping the Senate Republican, and it would cap a two-cycle quest after his narrow 2024 loss to Slotkin.

The surrogate battle

The final week has also been a showcase for surrogate politics. Sanders' appearance with El-Sayed in Alpena followed Obama's Detroit rally on Saturday, giving the Democrat back-to-back weekends of national star power. Trump, meanwhile, rallied for Rogers in Port Huron on Sunday and has made Michigan a regular stop on his closing blitz.

The surrogate choices reflect each campaign's theory of the race. Democrats are betting that high-profile progressive and establishment figures alike can energize a coalition that includes young voters — a group where the Glengariff poll found El-Sayed winning voters under 30 by a wide margin — and voters of color in Detroit and its suburbs. Republicans are betting that Trump's presence, and Rogers' own argument about the country's "heart and soul," can consolidate the voters who backed Trump in Michigan in 2024 and persuade the independents who have historically decided the state's close races.

Both theories will be tested by the same electorate on the same day. Michigan's early-vote surge suggests that electorate is engaged — and that the final week is less about persuasion than about making sure each side's voters actually cast a ballot.

What happens next

The final week of the Michigan campaign will be dominated by turnout. Both candidates are expected to continue traveling the state, with more surrogate visits likely in the closing days. Early in-person voting continues, and absentee ballots must be returned by Election Day.

The key questions for the final days: does El-Sayed's lead among independents hold, as Czuba's analysis suggests it could be decisive? Does Rogers' closing message about the country's "heart and soul" resonate beyond the Republican base? And does the early-vote surge — 1.2 million ballots and counting — favor one party's turnout machine over the other's?

The answers will come on November 3, when Michigan's polls close and one of the most expensive and closely watched Senate races in the country is decided. The result will be covered in full once it is known.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is leading the Michigan Senate race? The Glengariff Group poll conducted October 19-22 showed Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers 51.4 percent to 45.1 percent. The Politix+ average of 36 polls as of October 28 put El-Sayed ahead by 2.4 points. The race is rated a toss-up by forecasters.

What did the candidates do on Monday of the final week? Rogers spoke in Midland, saying the election "is no longer Blue vs. Red" but "about the heart and soul of the United States of America." El-Sayed campaigned in Alpena alongside Senator Bernie Sanders.

How many Michiganders have already voted? More than 1.2 million, according to the Michigan Secretary of State, including 138,000 who cast early in-person ballots over the weekend before October 27.

Who is retiring from Michigan's Senate seat? Democratic Senator Gary Peters is retiring. The winner of the El-Sayed vs. Rogers race will serve a full six-year term.

Why is the independent vote important in Michigan? Glengariff pollster Richard Czuba said the margin a candidate leads by among independents "tends to be the margin that you win by" in Michigan. El-Sayed led independents 45.5 percent to 40 percent in the October 19-22 survey — the first time he had led that group in the campaign.

When is Election Day? Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Sources

WCMU Public Media / Michigan Public, "Michigan candidates make final push one week before midterm election" (October 27, 2026). Michigan Secretary of State, early voting data via WCMU. Glengariff Group poll, October 19-22, 2026, via USA TODAY. 270toWin polling average, as of October 23, 2026. Politix+ polling averages, as of October 28, 2026.