Georgia One Week Out: Ossoff Leads Collins in Senate Polls, Governor Race Tied as Early Voting Tops 2 Million

Introduction

One week before Election Day, Georgia's top races are moving in different directions: Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff holds a clear lead over Republican challenger Mike Collins in the state's Senate contest, while the race for governor between Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson is essentially tied, according to three recent polls cited by USA Today on October 28, 2026.

The polling snapshot arrives as Georgia's early vote smashes records. More than 2 million votes had been cast early across the state as of Tuesday morning — just shy of 27 percent of Georgia's 7.5 million voters — with early voting on the first few days hitting an all-time record. Turnout in the greater Atlanta area has far outpaced both the 2022 midterms and the 2020 presidential election, a surge that has both parties recalibrating their closing strategies.

Georgia is once again at the center of the national map. Its Senate race could help decide control of the chamber, its governor's race is one of the most competitive in the country, and its 14 House seats include several contests that could matter for the House majority. With early voting running through October 30 and Election Day on November 3, the final week will be defined by turnout — and by whether the polling leads hold.

The Senate Race: Ossoff Leads in Three Polls

Polling in the last few weeks has remained relatively consistent in Georgia's Senate race: Ossoff continues to lead Collins, with the margin varying by pollster but the direction unchanged.

Echelon Insights put Ossoff ahead 55 percent to 40 percent, a 15-point margin. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll showed Ossoff leading 48 percent to 40 percent, an 8-point margin. Quantus Insights found Ossoff ahead 51.8 percent to 44.9 percent, a margin of about 7 points.

The consistency across three pollsters using different methods is notable. Ossoff, the Democratic incumbent, has led Collins in polling averages for weeks: the Politix+ polling average updated October 28 showed Ossoff ahead by 8.9 points across 11 polls, up from 8.1 points in the October 27 average. That places Georgia among the more comfortable Democratic Senate leads in a cycle where several other races remain within a few points.

Collins, a Republican former congressman, has campaigned as a close ally of President Donald Trump and has drawn presidential support in the final stretch. Trump campaigned in Georgia in late October, announcing a $4.2 billion Audi plant at a rally in Perry on October 24 and blasting Ossoff from the stage. But the polling suggests that even a high-profile presidential visit has not closed the gap, and Collins faces the same headwinds other Republicans have encountered nationally: a president whose approval rating has fallen to a record-low 31 percent in the Reuters/Ipsos survey, and an electorate in which economic concerns dominate.

Ossoff's campaign has focused on affordability, health care, and the cost of living — themes that have resonated with Georgia voters as prices remain high. The senator has also benefited from a strong Democratic turnout operation in the Atlanta suburbs, where early voting has been particularly heavy.

The Senate race matters beyond Georgia. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate, and holding Georgia is a prerequisite for any Democratic path to a majority. If Ossoff wins comfortably, it frees Democratic resources for tighter races in North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, Texas, Michigan, Kansas, and Iowa. If Collins were to close the gap and win, it would be a major upset and would significantly improve Republican chances of holding the chamber.

The Governor's Race: A Near-Tie

If the Senate race looks increasingly settled, the governor's race is the opposite: a dead heat in which each poll tells a slightly different story.

Echelon Insights put Bottoms ahead 49 percent to 48 percent, a one-point lead within any margin of error. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll showed Jackson ahead 46 percent to 45 percent, also a one-point margin. Quantus Insights found Jackson leading 48.2 percent to 46.6 percent, a margin of about 1.6 points.

In other words, three polls, three margins of a point or two, pointing in different directions. That is the definition of a toss-up, and it means the governor's race will likely be decided by turnout in the final week — and possibly by late-deciding voters who have not yet made up their minds.

Bottoms, the Democrat and former mayor of Atlanta, has campaigned on expanding health care access, protecting voting rights, and investing in education and infrastructure. Jackson, the Republican, has emphasized economic growth, public safety, and alignment with the Trump administration's agenda. The contrast mirrors the national debate: Democrats running on affordability and services, Republicans running on growth and order.

The governor's race also carries consequences beyond the statehouse. Georgia's governor appoints officials, shapes the state's budget, and influences election administration through the secretary of state's office — a separate race on the ballot this year between Republican Tim Fleming and Democrat Penny Brown Reynolds. The governor's race winner will also set the tone for Georgia's politics heading into the 2028 presidential cycle, when the state will again be a top battleground.

A Record Early Vote

Georgia's early vote has been the story of the cycle's final weeks, and the numbers continue to climb.

As of Tuesday morning, more than 2 million votes had been cast early across the state, including early in-person votes and absentee ballots already returned. That is just shy of 27 percent of Georgia's total voting population of 7.5 million voters, with several days of early voting still remaining.

The pace has shattered records. Early voting on the first few days hit an all-time record, with more than 50,000 additional votes cast compared with the first day of the 2022 cycle. The surge has been particularly strong in the greater Atlanta area, where turnout has far outpaced both 2022 and 2020.

The progression is striking. Through October 26, Georgia had accepted 1,698,469 in-person early votes and 82,740 absentee ballots — about 1.78 million total, or 23.7 percent of active voters. By Tuesday morning, the total had passed 2 million. First-day early voting set a record on October 13 with 188,667 ballots, and the momentum has not slowed.

Absentee ballot requests tell a different part of the story: 164,750 requests so far, compared with more than 285,000 in 2022. That decline reflects the broader national shift from mail voting to in-person early voting, as voters who adopted mail ballots during the pandemic increasingly choose to vote in person instead.

Early voting in Georgia runs through Friday, October 30. Voters who have not yet cast a ballot can vote early in person at any early voting location in their county, or wait for Election Day on November 3.

Who Is on the Ballot in Georgia

Georgia voters face a long ballot this year, with statewide races that will shape the state's government for years to come.

At the top of the ticket is the U.S. Senate race: Mike Collins (R) against Jon Ossoff (D), the incumbent. Below that is the governor's race: Rick Jackson (R) against Keisha Lance Bottoms (D).

The rest of the statewide ballot includes:

  • Lieutenant Governor: Greg Dolezal (R) vs. Josh McLaurin (D)
  • Secretary of State: Tim Fleming (R) vs. Penny Brown Reynolds (D)
  • Attorney General: Brian Strickland (R) vs. Tanya Miller (D)
  • Commissioner of Agriculture: Tyler Harper (R), the incumbent, vs. Katherine E. Juhan-Arnold (D)
  • Commissioner of Insurance: John King (R), the incumbent, vs. Keisha Sean Waites (D)
  • Commissioner of Labor: Bárbara Rivera Holmes (R), the incumbent, vs. Nikki Porcher (D)
  • State School Superintendent: Richard Woods (R), the incumbent, vs. Lydia Powell (D)
  • Public Service Commissioner District 3: Fitz Johnson (R) vs. Peter Hubbard (D), the incumbent
  • Public Service Commissioner District 5: Josh Tolbert (R) vs. Shelia Edwards (D)

Voters also face U.S. House races in all 14 of Georgia's congressional districts, along with local races and ballot measures. Voters can check a sample ballot for their district at the Georgia My Voter Page.

The breadth of the ballot matters because down-ballot races often track the top of the ticket. A strong Ossoff performance could lift Democratic candidates in competitive House districts and statewide offices, while a strong Republican turnout for Jackson could help Collins and other Republicans. The interplay between the Senate and governor's races — one leaning Democratic, one tied — makes Georgia's final week unusually unpredictable.

What the Polls Mean — and What They Don't

Polls are snapshots, not predictions, and Georgia's history offers reasons for both parties to be cautious.

Ossoff's lead in the Senate race is consistent across pollsters, but the margin varies from 7 to 15 points — a wide range that reflects different methods, samples, and assumptions about who will vote. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's 8-point margin and Quantus's 7-point margin suggest a solid but not overwhelming lead; Echelon's 15-point margin suggests a blowout. The truth is likely somewhere in between, and the final result will depend on which voters actually turn out.

The governor's race is even harder to read. Three polls within a point or two of each other, pointing in different directions, mean that small shifts in turnout or late-deciding voters could tip the outcome. Georgia's recent elections have been decided by narrow margins: Ossoff himself won his Senate seat in a January 2021 runoff by about 1.2 points, and the state's presidential races in 2020 and 2024 were both decided by less than a point.

Early voting adds another layer of uncertainty. Record turnout does not automatically favor one party: high turnout can reflect enthusiasm on both sides, and the composition of early voters differs from Election Day voters. Analysts have noted that early-vote advantages in party registration do not translate directly into votes, and that late-deciding voters — who tend to break against the party in power in midterm cycles — could still move the governor's race.

Nationally, the polling environment favors Democrats in the House and leaves the Senate a toss-up with a narrow Democratic tilt: Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 79 percent chance of winning the House with a projected 238 seats, and a 57 percent chance of taking the Senate with 51 seats, while prediction markets put Democratic Senate control at 63 to 65 percent. Georgia's Senate race fits that picture; its governor's race does not — it is a reminder that state dynamics can diverge sharply from national trends.

What's Next

The final week in Georgia will be intense. Early voting continues through Friday, October 30, and both parties are expected to make their closing pushes in the Atlanta suburbs, where the state's largest pool of swing voters lives, and in rural counties where turnout operations will determine margins.

National surrogates are likely to return. Trump campaigned in Georgia on October 24, and Democrats have deployed Obama and other figures to the state in recent weeks. Whether either side makes a final Georgia stop in the closing days has not been announced, but the state's importance to both the Senate and governor's maps makes it a likely destination.

Voters who have not yet voted should plan now. Early voting locations and hours are available through county election offices and the Georgia My Voter Page. Mail ballots must be returned by the deadline — voters worried about mail timing should drop ballots off in person at a drop box or deliver them directly to county registrars, since mailed ballots can take longer than a week to be returned.

Results in Georgia's closest races may not be known on election night. The state counts absentee and mail ballots as they arrive, and close races — particularly the governor's contest — could take days to finalize. Both parties have prepared legal teams, and the national attention on Georgia means any dispute over counting could quickly become a national story.

For now, the picture one week out is clear in its outlines and uncertain in its details: Ossoff leads, the governor's race is tied, and Georgians are voting in record numbers. The final week will decide which of those outlines hold.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who leads the Georgia Senate race?

Jon Ossoff leads Mike Collins in three recent polls: Echelon Insights 55-40, Atlanta Journal-Constitution 48-40, and Quantus Insights 51.8-44.9. The Politix+ polling average has Ossoff ahead by 8.9 points across 11 polls.

Who leads the Georgia governor's race?

No one, clearly. Echelon Insights has Keisha Lance Bottoms ahead 49-48, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution has Rick Jackson ahead 46-45, and Quantus Insights has Jackson ahead 48.2-46.6. The race is a statistical tie.

How many Georgians have voted early?

More than 2 million as of Tuesday morning, October 28 — just shy of 27 percent of Georgia's 7.5 million voters. Early voting runs through Friday, October 30.

When is Election Day in Georgia?

Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Polls will be open on Election Day, and early voting is available through October 30.

What other statewide races are on Georgia's ballot?

Lieutenant governor, secretary of state, attorney general, agriculture commissioner, insurance commissioner, labor commissioner, state school superintendent, and two Public Service Commission seats, plus all 14 U.S. House seats and local races and ballot measures.

Could Georgia's results take days to finalize?

Yes, particularly the governor's race if it remains close. Absentee and mail ballots continue to be processed after Election Day, and close races in Georgia have historically taken days to call.

Why does Georgia matter nationally?

Its Senate race could help decide control of the U.S. Senate, its governor's race is one of the nation's most competitive, and its House seats could matter for the House majority. Georgia has been a top battleground in every cycle since 2020.

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