Early Voting Surges Past 34 Million Ballots, Topping 2022 Midterm Pace With One Week to Go

Introduction

More than 34 million Americans have already cast ballots in the 2026 midterm elections, putting this year's early vote on a pace to exceed the early voting totals of the 2022 midterms, according to the University of Florida Election Lab's national tracker.

The milestone, reached in the final week of October, marks a sharp acceleration from just days earlier. National trackers counted about 26.9 million early ballots as of October 25, and more than 31 million by October 27. The jump to roughly 34 million by October 28 reflects a surge of in-person early voting across the country, record-setting turnout in several battleground states, and a shift in how Americans are choosing to vote.

The numbers do not reveal who is winning. Early vote totals show how many ballots have been cast, not which candidates those voters supported. But the scale and shape of the turnout — heavy in-person voting, strong showings in competitive states, and uneven patterns by county and party registration — are already reshaping expectations for Election Day on Tuesday, November 3, and for how long it may take to know the results in the closest races.

Election officials and analysts caution that early leads in turnout are not decisive. Reporting rules differ by state, party-registration data does not equal votes, and late-deciding and Election Day voters could still change outcomes. What the surge does establish is enthusiasm: millions of voters are not waiting for November 3.

The National Picture: 34 Million and Climbing

The University of Florida Election Lab reported Tuesday that more than 34 million Americans had already voted early, a national pace above 2022 that may surpass that midterm's early totals entirely, according to Particle's October 28 summary of the tracker data. The count covers ballots returned by mail and votes cast in person before Election Day across the states reporting data.

The trajectory tells the story of an electorate voting earlier and in larger numbers than it did four years ago. As of Thursday, October 22, the Associated Press reported more than 20 million early ballots from 46 states. By Sunday, October 25, the total had reached 26,891,189 ballots. By Tuesday, October 27, CNN's analysis put the figure above 31 million. The latest tracker update pushed it past 34 million — a gain of roughly 3 million ballots in a single day at the peak of the early voting window.

Comparisons with 2022 are striking. The 34 million figure already represents more than one-third of all early votes cast ahead of the 2022 midterms in the AP's earlier reporting, and trackers now describe this cycle as on pace to exceed 2022's early totals. The surge reflects changing post-COVID voting habits, according to analysts cited by Particle: voters who adopted early and mail voting during the pandemic have kept the habit, while concerns about mail service have pushed many toward in-person early voting instead.

The shift toward in-person voting is one of the cycle's defining features. Election offices are seeing voters move away from mail ballots and toward early in-person locations, a trend visible in state after state. North Carolina's early total of 1.7 million is up 42 percent from 2022, while its mail ballots are down about 34 percent. Wisconsin has reported a sharp rise in in-person absentee votes even as its overall early total sits near 2022 levels.

The shift has operational consequences. Large counties are setting local records and expanding operations as demand grows, adding staff, sites, and equipment to handle long lines. Election offices have also reported confusion generated by large get-out-the-vote mail campaigns, with some voters unsure about polling hours or whether they had already cast a ballot.

Texas Leads the Nation

No state has cast more early ballots than Texas, where about 4.5 million ballots were recorded in the first seven days of early voting alone. Harris County, home to Houston, logged more than 700,000 early voters — a local record that reflects both the state's competitive Senate race and its sheer size.

Texas early voting runs through Friday, October 30, and the state's totals will continue to climb through the end of the week. The contest between Republican Senator Ken Paxton and Democratic challenger James Talarico has drawn national attention, presidential visits, and tens of millions of dollars in advertising, and turnout in the state's largest counties has been a focal point for both campaigns.

Analysts tracking Texas ballots by party registration have reported an early Democratic advantage of about 115,000 ballots among those cast so far, according to Particle's summary. That figure requires careful interpretation: party registration does not reveal how any individual voted, Texas has no party registration in the traditional sense for primary purposes, and early-vote composition shifts as Election Day approaches. Still, the Texas numbers have been cited by both parties as evidence of enthusiasm, with Democrats pointing to strong turnout in urban counties and Republicans pointing to strength in their own strongholds.

The Texas picture is also shaped by the state's voting rules. Texas is one of 11 states that prohibit drop-off boxes, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, which means voters must return mail ballots by mail or in person to election offices. The U.S. Postal Service has recommended mailing ballots by October 27, one week before Election Day, and state and local officials have urged voters worried about return times to deliver ballots directly to election offices.

Battlegrounds Post Big Numbers

Beyond Texas, the battleground states that will decide control of Congress have all posted substantial early totals.

Michigan has recorded roughly 1.39 million early ballots, a significant figure in a state where the Senate race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers is among the closest in the country. More than 1.2 million Michiganders had already voted by the start of the final week, including 138,000 early in-person votes cast over a single weekend, according to state reporting cited in recent coverage. The Senate race, rated a toss-up, has drawn visits from former President Barack Obama, President Donald Trump, and Senator Bernie Sanders in the closing weeks.

Minnesota, another Senate battleground, has recorded roughly 419,000 early ballots. The state's Senate race between Democrat Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya has tightened in polling averages, and Minnesota's early vote is being watched as a gauge of enthusiasm in a state Democrats have carried in every presidential election since 1976.

North Carolina's 1.7 million early votes — up 42 percent from 2022 — reflect a state with competitive races up and down the ballot, including a Senate contest between Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley. Cooper has led in polling averages by more than 9 points, but North Carolina's history of close races and late-breaking turnout has kept both parties focused on the state.

Georgia has also set records. As of Tuesday morning, more than 2 million votes had been cast early across the state — just shy of 27 percent of Georgia's 7.5 million voters. Early voting on the first few days hit an all-time record, with more than 50,000 additional votes cast compared with the first day of the 2022 cycle, and turnout in the greater Atlanta area has far outpaced both 2022 and 2020. Georgia's Senate race between incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Mike Collins, and its governor's race between Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson, are both drawing national attention.

Wisconsin's pattern is more mixed: a sharp rise in in-person absentee voting even as overall early totals sit near 2022 levels, suggesting that voters are changing methods more than increasing in number. That nuance matters for analysts trying to read the electorate — a shift in method does not necessarily mean a shift in outcome.

What the Party Numbers Do and Don't Show

One of the most misread aspects of early voting is party-registration data. In states that report it, analysts can see how many early ballots were cast by registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and voters with no party affiliation or another affiliation. Those figures show who has voted, not how they voted.

Nationally, Democrats held an edge in party-registration data in several reporting states as of October 25 — 43.4 percent Democratic to 31.2 percent Republican among ballots in states reporting party data, according to figures cited in earlier coverage. Analysts and county data cited by Particle this week showed an early Democratic edge in several key places, including Texas and parts of North Carolina and Virginia, but stressed that turnout patterns vary widely by county and voter history.

The caveats are substantial. Party registration does not determine a voter's choice: registered Democrats can vote for Republicans and vice versa, and unaffiliated voters — a growing share of the electorate — are not captured by either party's total. Reporting rules also differ: some states report party data promptly, others do not report it at all, and mail ballots and in-person ballots arrive on different schedules.

Election experts have warned repeatedly that early leads are not decisive. Reporting rules, party-registration differences, and late or Election Day voters could change outcomes, and remaining turnout over the final days will be decisive for close races. The 2022 midterms offered a cautionary example: early-vote advantages did not translate cleanly into final results in several states, as Election Day voters broke differently from early voters.

The high, uneven early vote also raises the odds of tight margins, late results, and prolonged counting in close House and Senate contests, according to analysts cited by Particle. States with large mail-ballot volumes and rules that delay processing until Election Day may take days to finalize results, and close races could remain uncalled well past election night.

The Mail Ballot Deadline and What's Left

With one week to go, the mechanics of voting are as important as the politics. The U.S. Postal Service has recommended mailing ballots by October 27, one week before Election Day, because some states accept mail ballots after the election only if postmarked by Election Day, while others count only ballots received before polls close.

In an October 15 press call, USPS Chief Customer and Marketing Officer Steve Monteith assured voters that it is safe to vote by mail this year, while urging voters to get ballots in the mail a week before Election Day. In the 2022 and 2024 elections, 0.01 percent of ballots cast by mail were not delivered to election officials by Election Day, according to USPS figures cited by USA Today.

State and local election officials have directed voters worried about return times to use drop boxes, where available, or to deliver ballots directly to local election offices. But drop boxes are prohibited in 11 states — Arkansas, Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia — so voters in those states must plan accordingly.

Early voting windows are also closing on different schedules. Texas early voting ends Friday, October 30. Georgia early voting runs through October 30. Oklahoma's early voting begins Wednesday, October 28, and runs through Saturday, October 31. Pennsylvania's mail ballot application deadline was Tuesday, October 27, at 5 p.m., and completed ballots must be received by 8 p.m. on November 3. Voters should check their state and county election websites for exact hours and locations.

What's Next

The final week will bring more milestones. Early vote totals will continue to climb through the end of the week, and trackers will update daily. If the current pace holds, the final early-vote total could exceed 2022's by a wide margin — though the comparison depends on how each tracker defines and reports its totals, and counts vary by tracker and update time.

The campaigns, meanwhile, are in their closing stretch. Trump is scheduled to campaign in Ohio on Wednesday, October 28, and in South Carolina and Florida later in the week. Vice President JD Vance headlines a rally in Weatherford, Texas, on Thursday, October 29. Democrats are deploying their own surrogates, including Obama, who campaigned in Ohio and Michigan in recent days, and Sanders, who has toured battleground states on his "Fighting Oligarchy" tour.

Election officials are preparing for Election Day itself. Large counties have added staff, sites, and equipment, and several states have expanded early voting hours to handle demand. The U.S. Postal Service has implemented extraordinary measures for the final week, including hand-postmarking ballots from October 26, to ensure mail ballots are properly dated.

The most important caveat remains: early voting is not a result. It is a measure of participation, and participation this cycle is high. Which party benefits from that participation will not be known until ballots are counted — and in the closest races, that counting may take days.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many people have voted early in the 2026 midterms?

More than 34 million Americans had voted early as of October 28, according to the University of Florida Election Lab's national tracker. The figure covers mail ballots returned and in-person early votes in reporting states.

Is early voting higher than in 2022?

Yes, on current pace. The 34 million figure is above the 2022 pace at the same point, and trackers describe this cycle as on track to exceed 2022's early totals. Comparisons vary by tracker and update time, so exact margins differ between sources.

Which state has the most early votes?

Texas, with about 4.5 million early ballots in its first seven days of early voting. Harris County alone logged more than 700,000 early voters.

Does an early-vote lead mean a party is winning?

No. Early vote totals show how many ballots have been cast, not which candidates voters chose. Party-registration data shows who voted, not how they voted, and Election Day voters can break differently from early voters.

Why are so many voters choosing in-person early voting over mail?

Analysts cite changing post-COVID habits and concerns about mail service. North Carolina's mail ballots are down about 34 percent from 2022 while its in-person early total is up 42 percent, illustrating the shift.

What is the deadline for mailing a ballot?

The U.S. Postal Service recommends mailing ballots by October 27, one week before Election Day. Rules vary by state: some accept ballots postmarked by Election Day, others require receipt before polls close. Voters worried about timing should use a drop box where available or deliver ballots directly to election offices.

When is Election Day?

Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Results in close races may not be known on election night, as mail and absentee ballots continue to be processed after polls close.

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