Democrats Pour $2.2 Million Into Deep-Red House Seats Trump Won by Double Digits

With eight days left until Election Day, House Democrats are spending money in places Republicans once considered safe. The House Majority PAC, the top super PAC aligned with House Democrats, has poured more than $2.2 million into television advertising against two Republican incumbents in districts President Donald Trump carried by double-digit margins in 2024, according to a report first published by Punchbowl News and confirmed in a social media post by reporter Patrick Svitek on Monday, October 26, 2026.

The spending is the clearest sign yet that Democrats believe the House map is expanding in their favor in the final week of the campaign. Rather than defending only the battleground seats they already hold or the toss-up districts both parties have fought over all year, Democrats are now putting money into districts that, on paper, should be out of reach — and they are doing it openly, framing the move as evidence that Republicans are being forced onto defense across a much wider battlefield than anyone expected at the start of the cycle.

"With eight days until Election Day, Democrats continue to expand the map and push Republicans further and further on defense," House Majority PAC President Mike Smith said in a statement accompanying the spending announcement. "Next week, Democrats will take back the House, and Hakeem Jeffries will be elected the next Speaker."

That confidence is not coming out of nowhere. It follows a wave of forecast movement toward Democrats in recent days, including a decision by the Cook Political Report on Friday to shift 19 House races in Democrats' direction, several of them in districts currently held by Republicans. It also comes as Republicans' own top super PAC has been pulling money out of some races it once hoped to win, reallocating resources to defend seats it already holds. Taken together, the two trends tell the story of the final week: one party expanding, the other contracting.

The Two Targets: Minnesota and Indiana

The new Democratic spending is split between two races. The larger share, $2.2 million, is aimed at Republican Representative Brad Finstad in Minnesota's First Congressional District. The smaller share, $380,000, targets Republican Representative Victoria Spartz in Indiana's Fifth Congressional District. Combined, the late television buy totals $2.54 million, according to Svitek's summary of the House Majority PAC announcement.

Both districts voted heavily for Trump in 2024. Trump won Spartz's district by 17 percentage points and Finstad's district by 12 points, margins that would normally put both seats far outside the competitive range. That Democrats are spending seven figures in either district this late in the race is itself a statement about how the party reads the current environment.

In Minnesota's First District, the Democratic challenger is Jake Johnson, and there is at least one public poll suggesting the race is genuinely close. A KAAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll found Johnson leading Finstad by two percentage points, a result that, if accurate, would represent a dramatic swing in a district Trump carried comfortably. Polls of individual House districts are relatively rare and often carry wide margins of error, and a single survey should not be treated as proof of a lead. But the poll gives Democrats a concrete reason to invest, and the investment itself signals that the party's internal data may be telling a similar story.

In Indiana's Fifth District, the picture is different. Spartz is still leading her Democratic challenger, Indiana State Senator J.D. Ford, according to the reporting. But the Cook Political Report has moved the race from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican," a shift that, while modest, indicates the forecasters see the contest becoming more competitive than a solid rating implies. A "Likely Republican" rating still favors the incumbent, but it is no longer a seat forecasters consider out of reach, and Democrats clearly believe a late advertising push is worth the cost.

A Map That Keeps Growing

The Finstad and Spartz spending did not happen in isolation. On Friday, the Cook Political Report shifted 19 House races toward Democrats, the latest in a series of forecaster moves that have steadily improved the party's outlook in the closing weeks of the campaign.

Among the most notable shifts, four Republican-held seats moved from "Toss Up" to "Lean Democratic": the seats held by Representative Juan Ciscomani of Arizona, Representative Gabe Evans of Colorado, Representative Jen Kiggans of Virginia, and Representative Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin. A move from toss-up to lean Democratic does not decide a race, but it means forecasters now believe the Democrat is the favorite, and it changes how both parties allocate their final dollars.

Two other races moved from toss-up to leaning Democratic as well: Texas' 34th District, held by Democratic Representative Vicente Gonzalez, who is seeking reelection, and North Carolina's 11th District, held by Republican Representative Chuck Edwards. Edwards announced he would not seek reelection after investigators concluded he engaged in inappropriate conduct, leaving an open seat that forecasters now tilt toward Democrats.

The pattern across these shifts is consistent. Districts that began the cycle as pure toss-ups are breaking, on balance, toward Democrats, while a handful of districts that began the cycle as safely Republican are now competitive enough to attract late spending. That is the dynamic behind the House Majority PAC's decision to invest in Minnesota and Indiana: when the battleground expands, money follows.

Republicans Pull Back in Some Races

The other side of the ledger is equally telling. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the top super PAC aligned with House Republicans, has slashed spending in some races it once hoped to win and redirected money toward defending seats Republicans already hold.

According to the Daily Caller report, the Congressional Leadership Fund cut $6 million from Florida's 25th District and allocated $9 million to districts currently held by Republicans. Florida's 25th District was redrawn to benefit Republicans, which makes the retreat especially notable: a seat drawn to favor the party is now receiving less, not more, Republican investment in the final stretch.

The super PAC also cut $3 million from Texas' 28th District, another seat redrawn to help Republicans unseat Democratic Representative Henry Cuellar. Trump won that district by seven percentage points in 2024, yet Republicans are scaling back there too.

At the same time, Trump's own political operation has moved in the opposite direction in at least one place. The No Stepping Back PAC, Trump's political operation, has spent more than $25 million on House races, including $6.3 million in Florida's 25th District — the same district where the Congressional Leadership Fund pulled back. The contrast illustrates a split in Republican strategy in the final week: the party's institutional super PAC consolidating around defense, while Trump's operation continues to spend aggressively in selected offensive targets.

Republicans have also spent heavily in red-state Senate races, including Texas, Kansas, and Iowa, to hold seats that have become unexpectedly competitive. But the report notes that Republicans have slashed spending in North Carolina and Georgia, where Democratic candidates hold comfortable leads, another sign of a party narrowing its focus as Election Day approaches.

What the Spending Really Means

Late campaign spending is often read as a proxy for internal polling, and for good reason: parties do not spend millions of dollars in the final week on seats they believe are unwinnable, and they do not abandon seats they believe are safe. The House Majority PAC's decision to spend in Minnesota's First and Indiana's Fifth districts suggests that Democratic strategists see a path in both places, or at minimum see value in forcing Republicans to spend money defending them.

There is also a psychological dimension. Announcing spending in deep-red districts generates news coverage, and news coverage shapes perceptions of momentum. When a party is publicly expanding its map, it signals confidence to donors, volunteers, and voters. When a party is publicly retreating from districts it drew to favor itself, it signals the opposite. Both effects can become self-reinforcing in the final days, as donors direct late money toward the side they believe is winning and volunteers concentrate where they believe their work matters most.

None of this decides the outcome. Eight days is a long time in a campaign, and House races in particular can swing on local factors — a late advertisement, a candidate mistake, a shift in turnout — that national forecasts cannot capture. The KAAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll showing Johnson ahead of Finstad is a single survey, and Spartz still leads Ford in Indiana. Cook's ratings are judgments, not results. Prediction markets and forecasters have been wrong before, and the only poll that counts is the one on November 3.

But the direction of travel is unmistakable. In the final week of the 2026 midterms, Democrats are spending money in districts Trump won by 12 and 17 points, forecasters are moving races toward Democrats in batches, and Republicans are cutting spending in districts they drew to win. Whatever happens on Election Day, the map both parties are fighting over is wider than it was a month ago — and it is wider in Democrats' favor.

What's Next

The final week will bring a flood of late spending announcements from both parties, and the pattern to watch is whether Democrats continue to expand into new territory or consolidate around the seats they already lead in. If the House Majority PAC or allied groups announce additional spending in other Republican-held districts in the coming days, it will be further evidence that the party's internal data shows a broad battlefield. If instead the spending stops with Minnesota and Indiana, it may suggest the expansion has reached its limit.

Republicans, meanwhile, face a choice between defense and offense in their own final allocations. The Congressional Leadership Fund's moves suggest a defensive posture, but Trump's No Stepping Back PAC continues to spend aggressively, and the two approaches may produce different results in different places. The tension between them is one of the underreported stories of the final week.

Voters in Minnesota's First and Indiana's Fifth districts can expect a heavy final week of television advertising. Voters everywhere else should watch the spending announcements as closely as the polls: in the last eight days, where the money goes is often where the race is.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much are Democrats spending in deep-red House districts?

The House Majority PAC announced $2.2 million in television advertising against Republican Representative Brad Finstad in Minnesota's First District and $380,000 against Republican Representative Victoria Spartz in Indiana's Fifth District, for a combined total of $2.54 million in late spending.

Why are these districts significant?

President Donald Trump won Spartz's district by 17 percentage points and Finstad's district by 12 points in 2024. Districts with margins that large are normally considered safe for the party that won them, so Democratic spending there signals that the party believes the races are competitive.

Who are the Democratic challengers?

In Minnesota's First District, the Democratic candidate is Jake Johnson. A KAAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll found Johnson leading Finstad by two points. In Indiana's Fifth District, the Democratic candidate is State Senator J.D. Ford, who trails Spartz but has seen the race rating move from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican" at the Cook Political Report.

What did the Cook Political Report change?

On Friday, Cook shifted 19 House races toward Democrats. Four Republican-held seats moved from "Toss Up" to "Lean Democratic": those held by Representatives Juan Ciscomani of Arizona, Gabe Evans of Colorado, Jen Kiggans of Virginia, and Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin. Texas' 34th and North Carolina's 11th districts also moved from toss-up to leaning Democratic.

Are Republicans also changing their spending?

Yes. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House Republican super PAC, cut $6 million from Florida's 25th District and $3 million from Texas' 28th District, redirecting money to defend Republican-held seats. Trump's No Stepping Back PAC, by contrast, has spent more than $25 million on House races, including $6.3 million in Florida's 25th District.

Does this spending mean Democrats will win the House?

No. Spending is a signal of where parties believe races are competitive, not a result. Polls, ratings, and spending announcements all point in Democrats' favor in the House right now, but the outcome will be decided by voters on November 3.

Sources: Daily Caller (October 26, 2026), reporting first published by Punchbowl News; KAAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll; Cook Political Report; Patrick Svitek, October 26, 2026.